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MXN Weakness May Have Room To Extend

MEXICO
  • With a lucklustre session for EURUSD, notable broad MXN weakness throughout today's session. TRY weakness amid souring sentiment in equities is exacerbating the Peso price action.
  • USDMXN now above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, immediate short-term resistance now resides at 21.2851, the Mar 10 high. Above here, the path seems fairly clear to the year's highs at 21.6357.
  • Interestingly, barring an outsized adjustment in EURUSD, the 2021 highs in USDMXN may tie fairly closely to the major downtrend in EURMXN which currently intersects around 24.18.
  • The significance of these levels and the weakness in EMFX suggests there may be some further room for MXN to weaken in the short-term.
  • All the while, data deterioration and currency weakness may add pressure on the Banxico board to accelerate tightening. Indeed, Heath's comments worth noting that whether inflation is transitory or not is "irrelevant," because if CPI translates into higher costs and higher inflation expectations then problems would persist even after temporary factors vanish.
  • Yesterday's low of 20.8162 marks initial support for USDMXN

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