Myanmar Violence Raises Concerns Among ASEAN

The security situation in Myanmar appears to be deteriorating rapidly, and while the country is largely cut off from international financial markets amid heavy US sanctions, the impact of the conflict could impact on other nations in the region, while also affecting global tin prices. Earlier today, Reuters reportedthat Myanmar's military junta had ordered all gov't staff and workers with military experience to prepare to serve in the armed forces amid "heavy assaults" from ethnic and regional insurgents in areas across the country.

• In recent weeks, the BBC reports"The striking success [...] in Shan State in driving the army and police out of large areas along the border with China has emboldened other opposition forces..." The junta "has also lost control of much of the border with India [...] Another large ethnic force, [...] is also stepping up operations against military positions along the vital trade route to the Thai border. ."
• Al Jazeera reports that the stability of Myanmar has become a broader regional issue, with Indonesian Defence Minister (and potentially next president) Prabowo Subianto called for regional support for peace efforts in his opening speech at the ASEAN defence ministers meeting on 16 Nov.
• Myanmar is the world's third-largest producer of tin ore, with much of this going to China for smelting. The suspension of mining activityin the semi-autonomous Wa state has not had a significant impact, according to Reuters, due to stockpiling and low global tin demand. However, the longer the suspension lasts the more it could begin to bite in the electronics sector, where tin is used for circuit board soldering.