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Free AccessNAB: 0.70 Now A Pivot; Allow For More Time Below In H2 2022
NAB note that “since breaking back below 0.70 on May 9, AUD/USD has closed above 0.70 on 20 occasions and below 0.70 on 10. So, while our contention that forays below 0.70 are likely to prove short-lived and that AUD/USD is happiest inside a 0.70-0.80 range still just about holds, we doubt that the current spell sub-0.70 will be the last in 2022. Of the three key historical drivers of AUD/USD – commodity prices, risk sentiment and interest rates – risk sentiment is currently in the driving seat. Our NAB/BNZ risk index encompassing the VIX (mirroring the fall in the S&P) plus US and Emerging Market credit spreads sits in the lower quartile of its 0-100% range. The immediate issue for AUD is whether risk markets adequately price the risk of global recession as well as having fully accounted for current – and prospective – interest rate levels. If investors are not done with the downside in this respect, AUD/USD can fall through the 0.6829 YTD (2-year) low at some point in H2. Commodity prices, as an AUD-positive factor have lost some of the lustre as markets fret over the ‘demand destruction’ implicit in a significant global slowdown. Yet the absolute level of commodity prices remains consistent with (much) higher AUD/USD levels, which we continue to expect will materialise when the USD starts trending down, but which we currently assume is not before early 2023 at the earliest.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.