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NAB: Focus On Services Inflation In Q4 CPI

AUSTRALIA
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NAB expect “1.6% Q/Q for headline CPI to take the Y/Y rate to a peak of 7.5%. That’s in line with consensus, but below the RBA’s November SoMP forecast of 8.0% due to lower-than-earlier-expected fuel and fruit and vegetable prices.”

  • “For Trimmed Mean we pencil in 1.6% Q/Q and 6.6% Y/Y, helped by slowing construction costs. Consensus is for 1.5% Q/Q and the RBA’s November SoMP had 1.5%.”
  • “With growing confidence that goods and construction is turning disinflationary, the focus will shift to services and what that says about domestic inflation pressures and charting a path back to 2-3%.”
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NAB expect “1.6% Q/Q for headline CPI to take the Y/Y rate to a peak of 7.5%. That’s in line with consensus, but below the RBA’s November SoMP forecast of 8.0% due to lower-than-earlier-expected fuel and fruit and vegetable prices.”

  • “For Trimmed Mean we pencil in 1.6% Q/Q and 6.6% Y/Y, helped by slowing construction costs. Consensus is for 1.5% Q/Q and the RBA’s November SoMP had 1.5%.”
  • “With growing confidence that goods and construction is turning disinflationary, the focus will shift to services and what that says about domestic inflation pressures and charting a path back to 2-3%.”