NAB Spending Data Affirms Familiar Themes

NAB data for the week ended August 1 suggests "the trend decline in consumption spending seen in recent weeks has continued, with overall spending easing to 1.2% y/y (10.2% in the previous week). With stage 3 restrictions in effect, spending in VIC fell a sharper -5.3%, dragged down by steep falls in lockdown areas (-8.6%) - and predates stage 4 restrictions announced on August 2. A broad-based slowdown was also evident in all other states and territories, and in all industry sectors. Retail spending slowed noticeably (but was still positive and out-performing), but spending on Admin & Support Services, Transport and Education fell heavily. Total payment inflows into NAB merchants fell -1.6% in the 6-weeks to August 1, accelerating from -0.6% in the previous week (we have moved to a 6-week comparison to avoid end of financial year distortions). By industry, inflows fell most in Mining, Hospitality and Transport. Growth was strongest in Agriculture, Retail Trade, Other Services and Construction. By business size, business inflows fell most (and accelerated) for corporates, and increased modestly in large and emerging firms."