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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The January NAB business survey showed a further easing in conditions to 6 from an upwardly-revised 8. This has now moved just below the series average, the first time in two years. Confidence remains around breakeven at +1 up from 0, below the historical average where it has been since Q3 2022. The data is in line with the RBA’s subdued growth expectations for H1 2024 but while the price/cost pressures are off their peaks they have stalled.
- NAB notes that cost and price pressures “remain solid” but it expects them to ease over the early part of the year, as inflation lags growth. The 3-month increase in labour costs held at 2% but purchase costs rose 0.1pp to 1.8% and demand was strong enough for higher costs to be partially passed onto customers with the price of final products rising 1.2% up from 0.9% in December but in line with November’s increase.
Australia NAB price/cost components
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- The drop in conditions was driven by all the components with trading down 3 points, profitability -1 point and employment -2 points. Labour demand is still a couple of points above the series average but is pointing to a further slowdown in employment growth. Exports deteriorated as did capex.
- The forward looking components are still weak despite a 1 point rise in orders to -1 but retail is at -19.
Australia NAB business conditions vs forward orders
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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