Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Impulsive Rally Extends

US TSYS

Late Eurodollar/SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

EURJPY TECHS

Price Is Below The 50-Day EMA

US

Late Corporate Credit Update

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

NAB: Wages Were Stronger Than The Headline

AUSTRALIA

NAB write “ignore the headline WPI excluding bonuses number which printed at +0.7% Q/Q and +2.6% Y/Y. Note the RBA had pencilled in +0.7%/2.6% in their August SoMP and thus today’s data which shows a continued gradual increase in the WPI is not a surprise. What is a surprise is the wage pressure within the details of the report. Including bonuses private sector WPI was hotter at +3.3% Y/Y vs. +2.7% excluding bonuses. Focusing only on those who received a pay rise in Q2, the average increase was 3.8%, the highest since 2012 and well above the 2.6% growth seen prior to the pandemic in 2019. Note only a small minority of private sector workers typically receive a pay rise in Q2 (11-13% of workers typically pre-pandemic; this year it was 14%), whereas 42% receive a pay rise in Q3 when the new financial year starts and when award/minimum wages typically take effect. Headline WPI should pick up more strongly in Q3 and Q4 and today’s data does not change our view of the RBA hiking rates by 50bp in September.”

181 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

NAB write “ignore the headline WPI excluding bonuses number which printed at +0.7% Q/Q and +2.6% Y/Y. Note the RBA had pencilled in +0.7%/2.6% in their August SoMP and thus today’s data which shows a continued gradual increase in the WPI is not a surprise. What is a surprise is the wage pressure within the details of the report. Including bonuses private sector WPI was hotter at +3.3% Y/Y vs. +2.7% excluding bonuses. Focusing only on those who received a pay rise in Q2, the average increase was 3.8%, the highest since 2012 and well above the 2.6% growth seen prior to the pandemic in 2019. Note only a small minority of private sector workers typically receive a pay rise in Q2 (11-13% of workers typically pre-pandemic; this year it was 14%), whereas 42% receive a pay rise in Q3 when the new financial year starts and when award/minimum wages typically take effect. Headline WPI should pick up more strongly in Q3 and Q4 and today’s data does not change our view of the RBA hiking rates by 50bp in September.”