NAB write "retail spending is now.........>

AUSTRALIA: NAB write "retail spending is now growing at a trend pace of 0.1% per

month, raising the risk that consumer spending is still weak in Q1. A fall in

sales at department stores drove the weak outcome, down 2.1% m/m, while clothing

and household goods sales were also weak (-0.3%m/m and flat, respectively).

Regardless of the precise role played by falling house prices, trend growth in

retail sales has slowed considerably in Victoria and Queensland, while in NSW

trend retail sales are now flat. For the RBA, today's data add to an already

weak picture for households, raising the risk that the RBA will have to act on

rates to support consumers. In trend terms, the only state recording growth

above 0.2% m/m is WA. Elsewhere, the trade surplus lifted in January. A

broad-based rebound in exports more than offset the lift in imports. Rural

goods, commodities and service exports all rose in the month, with strong

increases in coal, iron ore, LNG and the (ever-volatile) non-monetary gold

driving the rise. In imports, perhaps a positive sign was the 13.5% increase in

car imports - perhaps signalling the recent lifts in car sales this year may

continue."