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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- We wrote earlier how the NAHB housing market index surprising again to the downside bodes ill for the economy in 2023, especially with respect to the u/e rate – see here:
- There are equally weak implications for house prices when looking at prospective buyer traffic, down 5pts to 20 for the lowest reading since Apr’20 (13) and prior to that 2012.
- Whilst the level is historically low, the change over the past year is unprecedented in the face of a severe climb in mortgage rates.
- There are caveats here that limit a direct read to heavily negative house price growth from a historical relationship, including i) it’s a change from a particularly unusual period that saw structural change in the market with different post-pandemic buyer demands and ii) the fact that the housing market is notably tighter than the Great Recession (existing home sales are 3.2 months of supply compared to 6-7 months in 2006).
- Nevertheless, the trend direction for house prices looks lower, likely weighing on household wealth in the process albeit after significant increases already accrued in the post-pandemic period to date.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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