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Waning Homebuilder Sentiment Bodes Ill For Economy In 2023

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On that slightly bigger than-expected NAHB Housing Market Index fall in November (to 33 vs 36 expected, 38 prior) to a fresh decade-low, and the 10th consecutive month of declines - we continue to highlight that homebuilder sentiment tends to lead a variety of indicators well in advance.

  • That includes building permits, construction, and the unemployment rate (see chart).
  • And another reminder: deteriorations in housing market confidence from multi-year peaks has previously presaged Fed cutting cycles by a year or two.

Source: BLS, NAHB, MNI

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On that slightly bigger than-expected NAHB Housing Market Index fall in November (to 33 vs 36 expected, 38 prior) to a fresh decade-low, and the 10th consecutive month of declines - we continue to highlight that homebuilder sentiment tends to lead a variety of indicators well in advance.

  • That includes building permits, construction, and the unemployment rate (see chart).
  • And another reminder: deteriorations in housing market confidence from multi-year peaks has previously presaged Fed cutting cycles by a year or two.

Source: BLS, NAHB, MNI