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Narrow Ranges For CORRA Futures, Cut Expectations Near Recent Lows

CANADA
  • Consistent with narrow front-end ranges amidst the large fixed income bear steepening today in both the US and Canada, CORRA futures trade only modestly cheaper to unwind about half of Friday’s retail sales induced rally.
  • Contracts trade 1-2.5 ticks cheaper, with the H4 implied yield marking the high for the cycle at 5.305% currently.
  • It’s followed by 39bp of cuts for 2024 on a H4/Z4 basis, off Thursday’s close of 36.5bps which marked the fewest cuts priced since Oct 2022.
  • As for the near-term BoC-dated CORRA OIS prices 12bp hike for next month and cumulative 20bp for Dec before a 25bp hike is fully priced for January.
  • Tomorrow sees a light docket, headlined by flash manufacturing sales for August after values bounced 1.6% M/M in July from -2.0% in June as part of a volatile run.

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