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AUSSIE BONDS: Narrow Ranges On A Data-Light Session Ahead Of RBA Decision Tomorr

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.0) are holding stronger after dealing in narrow ranges on a data-light Sydney session.

  • The domestic focus of this week will be tomorrow’s RBA decision and Thursday’s November jobs data after October disappointed. The cash rate is unanimously forecast to remain at 4.35% and so the guidance will be monitored closely for any changes. The RBA meeting will be followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference.
  • Bloomberg consensus is again forecasting a 25k increase in employment in November with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.2%. The RBA is projecting it to rise to 4.3% in Q4 2024.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest post-payrolls gains. Reminder, the Federal Reserve entered its self-imposed blackout at midnight Friday through December 19. The focus is this week's CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bp rate cut is 95% priced for April. The market attaches a 9% chance of a 25bps cut tomorrow.
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ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +2.0) are holding stronger after dealing in narrow ranges on a data-light Sydney session.

  • The domestic focus of this week will be tomorrow’s RBA decision and Thursday’s November jobs data after October disappointed. The cash rate is unanimously forecast to remain at 4.35% and so the guidance will be monitored closely for any changes. The RBA meeting will be followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference.
  • Bloomberg consensus is again forecasting a 25k increase in employment in November with the unemployment rate rising 0.1pp to 4.2%. The RBA is projecting it to rise to 4.3% in Q4 2024.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest post-payrolls gains. Reminder, the Federal Reserve entered its self-imposed blackout at midnight Friday through December 19. The focus is this week's CPI and PPI inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps softer across 2025 meetings. A 25bp rate cut is 95% priced for April. The market attaches a 9% chance of a 25bps cut tomorrow.