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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NZD
NZD/USD rose ~5.5% off lows in early January, before trading in a narrow 1.5 cent range for the remainder of the month. Dips have generally been supported below $0.64 and rallies have faced resistance above $0.65.
- Whilst Q4 CPI showed an easing in inflation pressure, and the labour market has begun to cool, the NZD remains unable to break out of its current range.
- Bears are currently testing the 20-Day EMA at $0.6424, a close below opens up the 200-day EMA at $0.6289.
- Bulls have been unable to sustain a break above $0.65, and need to clear January high at $0.6530 to regain the upper hand.
- Local sell side analysts are now moving towards a 50 bps hike from the RBNZ in February, with ASB and BNZ changing their calls in the wake of today's rise in the unemployment rate.
- Swap spreads have narrowed in recent dealing, with the 2 year NZ-US swap spread at +50bps, having dealt above +80bps in early January.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Daily Spot, EMAs
Source: Market News International (MNI)/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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