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NATGAS: EU Gas Market Prone to Volatility This Winter Amid Cold Weather Risk

NATGAS
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The European gas market remains prone to volatility with weather one of the key risks for the coming winter, according to BNEF.

  • Gas storage in the Europe Perimeter, Northwest Europe, Italy and Austria, is expected to end the winter above the five-year average but below levels from this year at 40% of capacity, or 31bcm, assuming 10 year average temperatures.
  • Gas in store could however fall to 35% with colder than normal temperatures as suggested by the seasonal weather forecast.
  • Any extra increase in winter demand and the upcoming halt to Ukraine transit supplies will boost the demand for LNG to refill inventories next summer. End of September 2025 stores are forecast at 93% capacity.
  • Total winter gas demand in the Europe Perimeter is forecast to rise 10% y/y with 10-year average temperatures driven by residential and commercial demand, and gas for power generation. Power generation demand is supported by planned decommissioning of coal and lignite plants in Germany.
  • Industrial gas demand is forecast up just 2% y/y this winter amid a weak recovery.

 

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The European gas market remains prone to volatility with weather one of the key risks for the coming winter, according to BNEF.

  • Gas storage in the Europe Perimeter, Northwest Europe, Italy and Austria, is expected to end the winter above the five-year average but below levels from this year at 40% of capacity, or 31bcm, assuming 10 year average temperatures.
  • Gas in store could however fall to 35% with colder than normal temperatures as suggested by the seasonal weather forecast.
  • Any extra increase in winter demand and the upcoming halt to Ukraine transit supplies will boost the demand for LNG to refill inventories next summer. End of September 2025 stores are forecast at 93% capacity.
  • Total winter gas demand in the Europe Perimeter is forecast to rise 10% y/y with 10-year average temperatures driven by residential and commercial demand, and gas for power generation. Power generation demand is supported by planned decommissioning of coal and lignite plants in Germany.
  • Industrial gas demand is forecast up just 2% y/y this winter amid a weak recovery.

 

Keep reading...Show less