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NATGAS: European Winter Gas Risks Despite Storage Buffer: Timera

NATGAS

High pre winter European storage levels provide a buffer but the market remains sensitive to weather risks, new LNG project delays and expected Russian pipeline supply cuts at year end, Timera said.

  • Russian pipeline imports could fall 5bcm winter-on-winter following the ceasing of the Ukrainian transit agreement.
  • A normal European or Asian winter would increase heating demand with weather risk exaggerated by growing exposure to wind/solar load factors.
  • Europe must still compete for limited available LNG flex volumes with a growing Asian market and limited total LNG supply growth winter on winter.
  • Consecutive mild winters and the storage mandates have seen storage levels remain above the 5-year average since Nov 2022. Denmark and Latvia are the only GIE reporting countries still yet to meet the EU pre winter 90% target.
  • Average net injection rates were up to just 10% below normal in the week to Oct. 22 at an average of 515GWh/d compared to 42% below normal levels the previous week, according to GIE.
  • European gas storage has edged up to 95.30% full on Oct. 22, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 92.2% with small net withdrawals on Oct. 22 while ten countries are now over 95% full.

 

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High pre winter European storage levels provide a buffer but the market remains sensitive to weather risks, new LNG project delays and expected Russian pipeline supply cuts at year end, Timera said.

  • Russian pipeline imports could fall 5bcm winter-on-winter following the ceasing of the Ukrainian transit agreement.
  • A normal European or Asian winter would increase heating demand with weather risk exaggerated by growing exposure to wind/solar load factors.
  • Europe must still compete for limited available LNG flex volumes with a growing Asian market and limited total LNG supply growth winter on winter.
  • Consecutive mild winters and the storage mandates have seen storage levels remain above the 5-year average since Nov 2022. Denmark and Latvia are the only GIE reporting countries still yet to meet the EU pre winter 90% target.
  • Average net injection rates were up to just 10% below normal in the week to Oct. 22 at an average of 515GWh/d compared to 42% below normal levels the previous week, according to GIE.
  • European gas storage has edged up to 95.30% full on Oct. 22, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 92.2% with small net withdrawals on Oct. 22 while ten countries are now over 95% full.

 

Keep reading...Show less