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NATGAS: Henry Hub Resumes Recent Trend Lower

NATGAS
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Henry Hub front month futures have seen a gradual pull back since Oct. 4 with power disruption in Florida due to Hurricane Milton last week adding to a warm weather forecast for late Oct. Healthy inventories towards the end of the injection season are also limiting upside despite a declining surplus since July.

  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated at 69.8bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to a seasonal average of around 67bcf/d. Average temperatures across the lower 48 states are expected below normal in the coming days but then forecast back above normal into next week. The NOAA 6-14 day forecast shows mostly above normal temperatures throughout.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is today at 13.13bcf/d, BNEF shows, assisted by the return of Cove Point to normal levels on Oct. 12. Supply is slightly down on the day with a 0.14bcf/d dip in Sabine Pass supply.
  • US domestic natural gas production was strong over the weekend at around 102.2bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg, but still below levels around 104bcf/d seen this time last year.
  • Export flows to Mexico are estimated at 6.4bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 491k on Oct. 11.
    • US Natgas NOV 24 down 2.3% at 2.57$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 down 1.6% at 3$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas OCT 25 down 0.9% at 3.27$/mmbtu
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Henry Hub front month futures have seen a gradual pull back since Oct. 4 with power disruption in Florida due to Hurricane Milton last week adding to a warm weather forecast for late Oct. Healthy inventories towards the end of the injection season are also limiting upside despite a declining surplus since July.

  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated at 69.8bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to a seasonal average of around 67bcf/d. Average temperatures across the lower 48 states are expected below normal in the coming days but then forecast back above normal into next week. The NOAA 6-14 day forecast shows mostly above normal temperatures throughout.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas supply is today at 13.13bcf/d, BNEF shows, assisted by the return of Cove Point to normal levels on Oct. 12. Supply is slightly down on the day with a 0.14bcf/d dip in Sabine Pass supply.
  • US domestic natural gas production was strong over the weekend at around 102.2bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg, but still below levels around 104bcf/d seen this time last year.
  • Export flows to Mexico are estimated at 6.4bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 491k on Oct. 11.
    • US Natgas NOV 24 down 2.3% at 2.57$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 down 1.6% at 3$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas OCT 25 down 0.9% at 3.27$/mmbtu