NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Erasing Yesterday’s Gains

TTF front month has erased yesterday’s gains and has fallen sharply, despite LNG supply concerns surrounding Tropical Storm Francine’s arrival in the USGC. High stock levels in Europe and soft demand are likely to limit any short-term supply concerns

• TTF OCT 24 down 2% at 36.59€/MWh
• The storm is a risk to US LNG export flows and Cameron LNG feedgas dropped about 41% on Monday evening according to Bloomberg data.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 190.4mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 175.4mcm/d today rising slightly to 181.9mcm/d on Sept. 12.
• European gas storage edges up to 92.99% full on Sep 8 according to GIE compared to the five-year average of 86.4% with injections rates still below normal.
• Inpex’s Ichthy’s LNG facility in Australia is expected to run its train 1 with a 70% reduction as part of inspections according to an emailed response by the company with Reuters.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 10% last week to 4.26m tons as of Sept. 8, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• Global LNG demand rebounded up 20% in the week to Sep 8 to 7.84m metric tons driven by Japan and mainland China recovering from multi week lows, according to BNEF.
• Hurricane Francine is poised to become a major test for new LNG export plants in Louisiana that could end up in its path this week.
• Goldman sees short term downside risk for US nat gas prices due to strong production and weak demand.