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NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Regains Ground

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TTF has resumed gains but remains below a high of €36.77/MWh from last week. The market focuses on geopolitical concerns, hurricane driven supply risks, and a brief cold spell in NWE.

  • TTF OCT 24 up 3.5% at 36.64€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 2.6% at 37.61€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 2.3% at 36.44€/MWh
  • TTF 1-2 spread up 0.1€/MWh at -0.65€/MWh
  • Israel continued its major strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Tuesday. The UN has called for de-escalation, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has said the attacks “cannot go unanswered”.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to fall below normal over the weekend before recovering back to near normal levels next week and through the first week of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 274mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg, with a delayed start up at Asgard and Karsto following seasonal maintenance and unplanned outage at Sleipner due to compressor failure. Gassco shows outages of 66.8mcm/d today but expected to reduce from Friday.
  • Small European gas storage injections continue taking stores to 93.74% of capacity on Sep 22, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.9%.
  • LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities fell 12.3% w/w to their lowest level since April on Sept. 22 at 1.64m tons, according to data released by the trade ministry.
  • Japan is in talks with Italy to sign a comprehensive memorandum of understanding to secure LNG supply during emergencies, according to NHK cited by Bloomberg.
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TTF has resumed gains but remains below a high of €36.77/MWh from last week. The market focuses on geopolitical concerns, hurricane driven supply risks, and a brief cold spell in NWE.

  • TTF OCT 24 up 3.5% at 36.64€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 2.6% at 37.61€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 2.3% at 36.44€/MWh
  • TTF 1-2 spread up 0.1€/MWh at -0.65€/MWh
  • Israel continued its major strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Tuesday. The UN has called for de-escalation, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has said the attacks “cannot go unanswered”.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to fall below normal over the weekend before recovering back to near normal levels next week and through the first week of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 274mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg, with a delayed start up at Asgard and Karsto following seasonal maintenance and unplanned outage at Sleipner due to compressor failure. Gassco shows outages of 66.8mcm/d today but expected to reduce from Friday.
  • Small European gas storage injections continue taking stores to 93.74% of capacity on Sep 22, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.9%.
  • LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities fell 12.3% w/w to their lowest level since April on Sept. 22 at 1.64m tons, according to data released by the trade ministry.
  • Japan is in talks with Italy to sign a comprehensive memorandum of understanding to secure LNG supply during emergencies, according to NHK cited by Bloomberg.