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NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Regresses

NATGAS
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TTF front month is weaker amid the expected return of Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe. This is offsetting cooler weather forecasts for the end of the month and into the start of October.

  • TTF OCT 24 down 1.3% at 35.1€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to be above normal for the coming week but the forecast has cooled slightly back to near normal for the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to the highest since the start of the month at 235.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 178.2mcm/d today rising to 191.2mcm/d tomorrow after which flows are expected to start to return.
  • European gas storage is slowly rising up to 93.41% full on Sep 15, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 87.8% with injection rates just 34% of normal levels last week.
  • Russia’s LNG exports to Europe in September could hit a 13-month low amid tepid regional demand and increased shipments via the Northers Sea Route to Asia, Montel said.
  • The East-West LNG arbitrage economics are strengthening as wider price spreads and declining freight rates offer traders more opportunities to send cargoes to the Far East, Platts said.
  • Saudi Aramco has taken the first steps to become a major LNG player, said Abdulkarim Al-Ghamdi the head of its natural gas business, with an increased stake in MidOcean Energy this month, according to Reuters.
  • TotalEnergies has signed a deal with Turkey’s BOTAS for the delivery of 1.1m tons of LNG per year for ten years starting from 2027, according to a company statement.
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TTF front month is weaker amid the expected return of Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe. This is offsetting cooler weather forecasts for the end of the month and into the start of October.

  • TTF OCT 24 down 1.3% at 35.1€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to be above normal for the coming week but the forecast has cooled slightly back to near normal for the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to the highest since the start of the month at 235.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 178.2mcm/d today rising to 191.2mcm/d tomorrow after which flows are expected to start to return.
  • European gas storage is slowly rising up to 93.41% full on Sep 15, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 87.8% with injection rates just 34% of normal levels last week.
  • Russia’s LNG exports to Europe in September could hit a 13-month low amid tepid regional demand and increased shipments via the Northers Sea Route to Asia, Montel said.
  • The East-West LNG arbitrage economics are strengthening as wider price spreads and declining freight rates offer traders more opportunities to send cargoes to the Far East, Platts said.
  • Saudi Aramco has taken the first steps to become a major LNG player, said Abdulkarim Al-Ghamdi the head of its natural gas business, with an increased stake in MidOcean Energy this month, according to Reuters.
  • TotalEnergies has signed a deal with Turkey’s BOTAS for the delivery of 1.1m tons of LNG per year for ten years starting from 2027, according to a company statement.