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NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Ticks Up

NATGAS
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TTF front month is up on the day but is trading down from a high of €40.625/MWh on Friday with warm weather limiting demand while supply remains fairly stable. The situation in the Middle East isn’t deteriorating further while focus also remains on the future of Ukraine transit gas which is currently due to halt at year end.

  • TTF NOV 24 up 0.6% at 40.1€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast above normal in the coming week before drifting back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 315.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg with output limited by unplanned outages at Troll, Gullfaks and Oseberg all due to compressor failure. Gassco currently shows outages of 47.8mcm/d today falling to 28.6mcm/d tomorrow.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.93% full on Oct. 12, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.8% with net injection rates back around normal.
  • Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s Cove Point LNG facility in Maryland returned to production on Saturday following three weeks annual maintenance according to LSEG data.
  • Additional gas price volatility in recent weeks has been fuelled by the Middle East which has a central role in both regional and global gas supply security, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
  • While not quite as unseasonably high as the week prior, last week saw European apparent demand 3% above seasonal expectations on average, according to Giovanni Bettinelli, Independent consultant at GFB Insight, via LinkedIn.
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TTF front month is up on the day but is trading down from a high of €40.625/MWh on Friday with warm weather limiting demand while supply remains fairly stable. The situation in the Middle East isn’t deteriorating further while focus also remains on the future of Ukraine transit gas which is currently due to halt at year end.

  • TTF NOV 24 up 0.6% at 40.1€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast above normal in the coming week before drifting back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 315.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg with output limited by unplanned outages at Troll, Gullfaks and Oseberg all due to compressor failure. Gassco currently shows outages of 47.8mcm/d today falling to 28.6mcm/d tomorrow.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.93% full on Oct. 12, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.8% with net injection rates back around normal.
  • Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s Cove Point LNG facility in Maryland returned to production on Saturday following three weeks annual maintenance according to LSEG data.
  • Additional gas price volatility in recent weeks has been fuelled by the Middle East which has a central role in both regional and global gas supply security, according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
  • While not quite as unseasonably high as the week prior, last week saw European apparent demand 3% above seasonal expectations on average, according to Giovanni Bettinelli, Independent consultant at GFB Insight, via LinkedIn.