Natgas Summary: Potential Australian LNG Strikes Cause Gas Rally

European TTF gas has surged to the highest level since 15 June to an intra-day high of €43.545/MWh before easing back amid ongoing supply risks from Norway and Russia and possible disruptions to global LNG supplies amid planned strike action in Australia.

• •TTF SEP 23 up 26.6% at 39.34€/MWh
• •Prices increased by as 40% on the day, marking the highest daily increase since March 2022.
• •In Australia, workers at Woodside and Chevron LNG platforms and facilities in Australia have voted to strike, threatening to disrupt LNG supply, meaning the workforce can cease operations with seven days’ notice. Potential industrial action at Australian LNG facilities could tighten supply and boost prices, as Asian buyers - particularly in Japan - are forced to source alternate volumes.
• •Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up at 336.9mcm/d today as output recovers towards the volumes seen in late July. Ormen Lange gas works with a capacity reduction of 19.3mcm/d have been delayed by 4 days to Aug 19.
• •Total European gas in store is above the five year range up to 87.72% full on a 7 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 73.3%.
• •LNG sendout to Europe recovered back up to 300mcm/d on 7 August with increased flows to NW Europe and Italy. The JKM-TTF spreads is edging lower but near term US LNG exports remain more profitable to deliver to Asia over Europe.
• •Europe’s energy market is still at risk of spiking prices this winter, according to EON CEO Leonhard Birnbaum.
• •Norwegian hydropower reserves remained flat on the week at 73.8% of capacity as of 8 August, narrowing the surplus to the 5-year average, NVE data showed.
• •Deutsche ReGas has successfully tendered LNG supplies for a new terminal planned to operate on Mukran on the Baltic Sea, according to Reuters.
• •The US netback to Asia in September was at $7.04/MMBtu, and $8.29/MMBtu for October, compared to $6.42/MMBtu and $7.58/MMBtu to Europe according to Bloomberg before the TTF rally today.
• •JKM Sep 23 down -0.2% at 10.96$/mmbtu
• •JKM-TTF Sep 23 down -2.6$/mmbtu at -1.49$/mmbtu
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