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NATGAS: TTF Eases Lower Amid Mild H2 Oct Forecast as Middle East Risk Weighed

NATGAS
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TTF continues the decline seen in recent days with the forecast of warm weather in the second half of October adding to a wider energy market pull back yesterday as Middle East risks are weighed.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to drop back below normal in the coming days, but the cold will be fairly short lived with above normal expected again from mid month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 308.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 50.5mcm/d today amid unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks but falling to 28.6mcm/d on Oct. 12.
  • European LNG sendout was 258mcm/d on Oct. 7, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 269mcm/d so far this month and a high of 307mcm/d on Oct. 4.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.61% full on Oct. 7, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.2% as small net injections continue.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at the highest since May at 64.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 278k on Oct. 8.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.2% at 38.44€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1% at 39.45€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1% at 37.62€/MWh
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TTF continues the decline seen in recent days with the forecast of warm weather in the second half of October adding to a wider energy market pull back yesterday as Middle East risks are weighed.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to drop back below normal in the coming days, but the cold will be fairly short lived with above normal expected again from mid month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 308.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 50.5mcm/d today amid unplanned outages at Troll and Gullfaks but falling to 28.6mcm/d on Oct. 12.
  • European LNG sendout was 258mcm/d on Oct. 7, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 269mcm/d so far this month and a high of 307mcm/d on Oct. 4.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.61% full on Oct. 7, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.2% as small net injections continue.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at the highest since May at 64.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 278k on Oct. 8.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.2% at 38.44€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1% at 39.45€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1% at 37.62€/MWh