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NATGAS: TTF Eases Off Highs as Russian Pipeline Flows Continue

NATGAS
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TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €47.49/MWh on Friday as Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe continue at normal levels despite a cut in supplies to Austria’s OMV on Nov. 16. Colder weather this week and strong storage withdrawals remain supportive. 

  • Fighting between Russian and Ukraine intensified over the weekend as Russia launched one of its largest middle and drone strikes including at Ukraine energy infrastructure.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Below normal temperatures are forecast across Europe this week but are expected to rise back to or just above normal through the coming weekend.
  • European gas storage has fallen below the previous five year average level to 90.99% full on Nov. 12, according to GIE as net withdrawals remain above normal.
  • European LNG sendout was 262mcm/d on Nov. 16, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 293mcm/d over the previous week. US LNG netbacks to Europe and Asia are near parity through the winter, BNEF shows.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are estimated at 333.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 340mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 70mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was up at 506k on Nov. 15.
    • TTF DEC 24 down 1.9% at 45.68€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.8% at 45.83€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.8% at 43.78€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 0.8% at 40.7€/MWh
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TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €47.49/MWh on Friday as Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe continue at normal levels despite a cut in supplies to Austria’s OMV on Nov. 16. Colder weather this week and strong storage withdrawals remain supportive. 

  • Fighting between Russian and Ukraine intensified over the weekend as Russia launched one of its largest middle and drone strikes including at Ukraine energy infrastructure.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Below normal temperatures are forecast across Europe this week but are expected to rise back to or just above normal through the coming weekend.
  • European gas storage has fallen below the previous five year average level to 90.99% full on Nov. 12, according to GIE as net withdrawals remain above normal.
  • European LNG sendout was 262mcm/d on Nov. 16, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 293mcm/d over the previous week. US LNG netbacks to Europe and Asia are near parity through the winter, BNEF shows.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are estimated at 333.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 340mcm/d over the previous week.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 70mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was up at 506k on Nov. 15.
    • TTF DEC 24 down 1.9% at 45.68€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.8% at 45.83€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.8% at 43.78€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 0.8% at 40.7€/MWh