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NATGAS: TTF Extends Decline Amid Healthy Stores and Weak Energy Complex

NATGAS

TTF front month is extending the recent decline, falling towards the lows of around €36.1/MWh from Aug 23 despite ongoing Norway maitenance.  Prices are under pressure from healthy storage, a lower recent geopolitical risk premium and with weaker prices across the energy complex.

  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are up slightly on the day to 195.4mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows capacity reductions of 165mcm/d today but rising back to a peak of 237mcm/d tomorrow and Friday.
  • European LNG sendout was at 241mcm/d on Sept 1 according to Bloomberg in line with levels of the previous few days with LNG demand supported by the drop in European pipeline supplies.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold above normal through the coming weekend but are expected to gradually drop next week and now forecast below normal towards the middle of the month.
  • European gas storage is 92.52% full on Sep 2 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 85.2%.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara has fallen to the lowest since 2020 at 20.7mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 274k on Sep 3.
    • TTF OCT 24 down 1.8% at 36.54€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 1.5% at 38.98€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.6% at 38€/MWh
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