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NATGAS: TTF Pulls Back from High with Sudzha Gas Flows Near Normal

NATGAS

TTF front month has pulled back from a high of €42.9/MWh yesterday with Europe fundamentals unchanged despite supply risks from Ukraine and Middle East conflicts. 

  • Russia and Ukraine intend to keep pipeline gas flowing to Europe despite the continued fighting in Kursk, with neither side intending to halt flows via Sudzha, Bloomberg said. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are nominated at the normal level at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to gradually cool this week and then hold at or slightly above normal throughout the second week of the outlook. 
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 329.9mcm/d with capacity reductions of 28.2mcm/d today falling to 16mcm/d on Aug 15 according to Gassco.
  • European LNG sendout is relatively unchanged on the day near levels last seen in 2021 at 186mcm/d on Aug 11 according to Bloomberg.
  • European gas in store is up to 87.59% full on Aug 11 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 79.5%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today at 55.0cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was back down to 367k on Aug 12.
    • TTF SEP 24 down 1.4% at 39.09€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 1.1% at 42.11€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.1% at 40.22€/MWh
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