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TTF Rally Weighs on Gas Margins

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The latest TTF rally, coupled with lower carbon prices, have weighed on the competitiveness of gas-fired power plants against coal, IEA gas analyst, Greg Molnar, said. 

  • TTF front month gas prices have rallied since mid-September and are currently up by 21.2% since the close on 19 September.
  • Front month API2 coal prices, in comparison, rose by 10.8% since 19 September close.
  • EU ETS Dec24 allowances are down by 2.5% in the same period.
  • If gas prices continue to be elevated and outweigh gains in EU coal markets, there could be some gas-to-coal fuel switching this winter.
    • EUA DEC 24 down 1.3% at 61.27 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 2.2% at 40.06 EUR/MWh
    • Rotterdam Coal NOV 24 down 0.5% at 122.8 USD/MT
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The latest TTF rally, coupled with lower carbon prices, have weighed on the competitiveness of gas-fired power plants against coal, IEA gas analyst, Greg Molnar, said. 

  • TTF front month gas prices have rallied since mid-September and are currently up by 21.2% since the close on 19 September.
  • Front month API2 coal prices, in comparison, rose by 10.8% since 19 September close.
  • EU ETS Dec24 allowances are down by 2.5% in the same period.
  • If gas prices continue to be elevated and outweigh gains in EU coal markets, there could be some gas-to-coal fuel switching this winter.
    • EUA DEC 24 down 1.3% at 61.27 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas NOV 24 down 2.2% at 40.06 EUR/MWh
    • Rotterdam Coal NOV 24 down 0.5% at 122.8 USD/MT