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NATGAS: TTF Set for Weekly Gain as Europe Wary of Supply Disruptions

NATGAS
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TTF is set for a net weekly gain due to Middle East risks as the European market remains sensitive to supply disruptions ahead of the winter heating season. Recovering pipeline supplies and higher LNG sendout are covering the current demand boost due to colder weather.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to warm back above normal from the current cold over the weekend before dropping again late next week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to the highest since Aug. 27 at 306.6mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 38.4mcm/d today and expected to continue around 28.6mcm/d until Oct. 25.
  • European LNG sendout was up to 288mcm/d on Oct. 2, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 224mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage remains healthy despite another small net withdrawal on the day. Gas storage is 94.33% full on Oct. 2, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.5%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at 56mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.25mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 303k on Oct. 3.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 0.8% at 39.6€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.1% at 40.19€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 38.25€/MWh
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TTF is set for a net weekly gain due to Middle East risks as the European market remains sensitive to supply disruptions ahead of the winter heating season. Recovering pipeline supplies and higher LNG sendout are covering the current demand boost due to colder weather.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to warm back above normal from the current cold over the weekend before dropping again late next week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to the highest since Aug. 27 at 306.6mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 38.4mcm/d today and expected to continue around 28.6mcm/d until Oct. 25.
  • European LNG sendout was up to 288mcm/d on Oct. 2, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 224mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage remains healthy despite another small net withdrawal on the day. Gas storage is 94.33% full on Oct. 2, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.5%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at 56mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.25mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 303k on Oct. 3.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 0.8% at 39.6€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.1% at 40.19€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 38.25€/MWh