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NATGAS: TTF Sets Cooler Weather at Month End Against Higher Norway Supply

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

TTF front month is holding steady with the expected return of Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe set against a cooler weather forecast for the end of the month and into the start of October. 

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected above normal for the coming week but the forecast has cooled slightly back to near normal for the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to the highest since the start of the month at 235.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 178.2mcm/d today rising to 191.2mcm/d tomorrow after which flows are expected to start to return.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated at 38.1mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was up to 271mcm/d on Sept. 16, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 245mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage is slowly rising up to 93.41% full on Sep 15, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 87.8% with injection rates just 34% of normal levels last week.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 246k on Sep 17.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 0.1% at 35.6€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.1% at 37.6€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.7% at 36.83€/MWh
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TTF front month is holding steady with the expected return of Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe set against a cooler weather forecast for the end of the month and into the start of October. 

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected above normal for the coming week but the forecast has cooled slightly back to near normal for the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to the highest since the start of the month at 235.2mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 178.2mcm/d today rising to 191.2mcm/d tomorrow after which flows are expected to start to return.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated at 38.1mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was up to 271mcm/d on Sept. 16, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 245mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage is slowly rising up to 93.41% full on Sep 15, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 87.8% with injection rates just 34% of normal levels last week.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 246k on Sep 17.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 0.1% at 35.6€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.1% at 37.6€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.7% at 36.83€/MWh