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NATGAS: TTF Ticks Higher Amid Low Pipeline Supply and LNG Risks

NATGAS

TTF front month ticks higher amid LNG supply concern as Tropical Storm Francine heads towards the US Gulf Coast where it is expected to make landfall on Wednesday in Louisiana as a category 2 hurricane. Pipeline gas supplies cuts from Norway and Algeria and colder weather in NW Europe this week are also supportive.

  • The storm is a risk to US LNG export flows and Cameron LNG feedgas dropped about 41% on Monday evening according to Bloomberg data.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 190.4mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 175.4mcm/d today rising slightly to 181.9mcm/d on Sept. 12.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara have edged higher but remain well below normal at 25.0mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • European LNG sendout was down to 213mcm/d on Sept 7 compared to an average of 262mcm/d in the previous week according to Bloomberg.
  • European gas storage edges up to 92.99% full on Sep 8 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 86.4% with injections rates still below normal.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to gradually decline in the coming days before slowly recovering back towards seasonal normal levels after the middle of the month.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.2mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 200k on Sep 9.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 0.9% at 37.68€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 0.6% at 39.73€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 0.4% at 38.42€/MWh
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