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NATGAS: TTF Weighs Increasing Supply with Cold and Middle East Risks

NATGAS
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TTF holds just below the highest since Aug 12 at €41.18MWh yesterday with increasing Norway pipeline supply and LNG imports set against the risk from cooler weather and Middle East supply concerns.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold above normal in the coming days before colder weather returns late this week.  The second week of the forecast is then expected to hold near normal.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to the highest since Aug. 27 at 315.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 41.8mcm/d today falling to 28.6mcm/d tomorrow until Oct. 25.
  • European LNG sendout rose to the highest since May at 307mcm/d on Oct. 4, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 240mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage has seen a return to small net injections after briefly showing small withdrawals last week. Gas storage is 94.42% full on Oct. 5, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.0%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at 57.6mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.25mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 304k on Oct. 4.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.7% at 40.3€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.4% at 41.05€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.1% at 38.9€/MWh
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TTF holds just below the highest since Aug 12 at €41.18MWh yesterday with increasing Norway pipeline supply and LNG imports set against the risk from cooler weather and Middle East supply concerns.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to hold above normal in the coming days before colder weather returns late this week.  The second week of the forecast is then expected to hold near normal.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to the highest since Aug. 27 at 315.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 41.8mcm/d today falling to 28.6mcm/d tomorrow until Oct. 25.
  • European LNG sendout rose to the highest since May at 307mcm/d on Oct. 4, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 240mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage has seen a return to small net injections after briefly showing small withdrawals last week. Gas storage is 94.42% full on Oct. 5, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.0%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated up at 57.6mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.25mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 304k on Oct. 4.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.7% at 40.3€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 1.4% at 41.05€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1.1% at 38.9€/MWh