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NATGAS: TTF Weigns Warm Forecast and Steady Supply With Geopolitical Risks

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

TTF front month is edging down from a high of €40.4/MWh yesterday and below a peak of €41.18/MWh from Oct. 4 with markets closely watching Israel’s retaliation to a previous Iranian strike. Fundamentals remain steady with mild weather forecast, recovering Norway supply and gas storage slowly building towards 95% of capacity ahead of winter.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to rise back above normal at the start of next week and remain above through the following week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at the highest since Aug. 22 at 321.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of at least 28.6mcm/d until Oct. 25 with today at 39.8mcm/d amid capacity reductions at Troll and Gullfaks.
  • European LNG sendout was up on the day to 268mcm/d on Oct. 9, according to Bloomberg, but in line with the average from the previous week.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.74% full on Oct. 9, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.5% with net injection rates just below normal.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara remain strong estimated at 65.3mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 274k on Oct. 10.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 0.7% at 40€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.8% at 40.75€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 38.78€/MWh
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TTF front month is edging down from a high of €40.4/MWh yesterday and below a peak of €41.18/MWh from Oct. 4 with markets closely watching Israel’s retaliation to a previous Iranian strike. Fundamentals remain steady with mild weather forecast, recovering Norway supply and gas storage slowly building towards 95% of capacity ahead of winter.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to rise back above normal at the start of next week and remain above through the following week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at the highest since Aug. 22 at 321.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of at least 28.6mcm/d until Oct. 25 with today at 39.8mcm/d amid capacity reductions at Troll and Gullfaks.
  • European LNG sendout was up on the day to 268mcm/d on Oct. 9, according to Bloomberg, but in line with the average from the previous week.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.74% full on Oct. 9, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.5% with net injection rates just below normal.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara remain strong estimated at 65.3mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 274k on Oct. 10.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 0.7% at 40€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.8% at 40.75€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 38.78€/MWh