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NATGAS: Winter Gas Volatility with Balancing from Less Elastic Sources: Timera

NATGAS
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Continued gas price volatility is expected across winter with market balancing from less elastic demand sources, according to Timera Energy. 

  • High pre winter European storage levels provide a buffer but the market remains sensitive to weather risks, new LNG project delays and expected Russian pipeline supply cuts at year end. The potential Azeri ‘swap’ deal is considered unlikely, Timera said.
  • A structurally tight market remains until the next wave of LNG supply comes online into 2026.
  • More normal temperatures this winter could lead a partial demand rebound while about a 5bcm cut in Russian pipeline supplies due to end of Ukrainian transit could encourage stronger storage withdrawals.
  • European LNG imports are forecast roughly flat year on year amid ongoing competition with a growing Asian market for limited available flex volumes.
  • European stocks are expected to end the winter close to five year average levels.
  • Geopolitical tensions provide upside price risk from any impact to LNG flows and rising oil prices impacting Asian switching and LNG indexation.

 

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Continued gas price volatility is expected across winter with market balancing from less elastic demand sources, according to Timera Energy. 

  • High pre winter European storage levels provide a buffer but the market remains sensitive to weather risks, new LNG project delays and expected Russian pipeline supply cuts at year end. The potential Azeri ‘swap’ deal is considered unlikely, Timera said.
  • A structurally tight market remains until the next wave of LNG supply comes online into 2026.
  • More normal temperatures this winter could lead a partial demand rebound while about a 5bcm cut in Russian pipeline supplies due to end of Ukrainian transit could encourage stronger storage withdrawals.
  • European LNG imports are forecast roughly flat year on year amid ongoing competition with a growing Asian market for limited available flex volumes.
  • European stocks are expected to end the winter close to five year average levels.
  • Geopolitical tensions provide upside price risk from any impact to LNG flows and rising oil prices impacting Asian switching and LNG indexation.

 

Keep reading...Show less