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UK: Week Ahead

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National inflation likely to surprise to the upside

GERMAN DATA
  • We have now received six State CPI prints from Germany. These have come in at +0.1%, +0.2%, two prints of +0.4%, +0.7% and +0.8%.
  • Note that consensus is looking for the national German CPI print to be -0.2%M/M, so it looks as though we will see an upside surprise of at least 3-4 tenths.
  • Just a caveat that this does not always translate into a surprise for the HICP print.
  • Note that Spanish HICP surprised to the upside by six tenths earlier this morning.
  • Bunds the underperformers in core FI this morning while the Euribor strip continues to underperform the SONIA and Eurodollar strips.
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