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Nationals Ahead But May Need Two Coalition Partners


The latest 1News/Verian poll is showing that there is a high probability that NZ will see a change of government following elections on October 14. The poll released today shows the incumbent Labour Party steady on 26% and their partner the Greens on 13%, while the opposition National Party continues to hold 36%. Its ally ACT is down 2pp to 10%, which could mean that the election is a lot closer than the percentages suggest.

  • 61 seats are required to form a government and based on the support shown in the 1News/Verian poll, Nationals/ACT will be 2 seats short and will need to form a coalition with NZ First who is on track to win around 8 seats. The centre-left looks set to win 53 seats and a deal with NZ First could see it return to government.
  • The undecideds fell 1pp to 10%.
  • PM Hipkins is now behind the Nationals’ Luxon as preferred PM on 25% versus 26%, which is the first time this has occurred.
  • The poll was taken between September 30 and October 3.

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