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MEXICO: Natixis Forecasting 50BP Banxico Cut, Subject to Steady Peso

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletEmerging Market NewsNorth America
  • Natixis believe Trump could announce tariffs on Saturday, but they continue to believe it would be a negotiating tool. Even if Trump follows through this weekend, Natixis believe he will leave the door open for negotiations with both Mexico and Canada.
  • This would suggest that the tariffs would be lifted quickly. If this is confirmed, the MXN should remain stable around 20.50-21.00 before the monetary policy meeting.
  • If this is the case, Natixis now believe that Banxico will cut its key rate by 50bp to 9.50% (previously they expected a 25bp cut).
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  • Natixis believe Trump could announce tariffs on Saturday, but they continue to believe it would be a negotiating tool. Even if Trump follows through this weekend, Natixis believe he will leave the door open for negotiations with both Mexico and Canada.
  • This would suggest that the tariffs would be lifted quickly. If this is confirmed, the MXN should remain stable around 20.50-21.00 before the monetary policy meeting.
  • If this is the case, Natixis now believe that Banxico will cut its key rate by 50bp to 9.50% (previously they expected a 25bp cut).