Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Climbs to Highest Since Jan

Front month Henry Hub remains on track for its highest close since January, although has relinquished some gains after an intraday peak of $2.629/MMBtu. US natural gas have been boosted by continued support from strong domestic demand and higher LNG feedgas during the day. Cooler weather forecasted into Europe could maintain strong LNG demand, while global energy markets are keeping a risk premium due to Middle East conflict.

• US Natgas DEC 23 up 6.7% at 3.58$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAY 24 up 5.1% at 3.26$/mmbtu
• US natural gas demand is today estimated up again to 79.2bcf/d with current below normal temperatures in eastern and Gulf Coast regions.
• Temperatures are expected to warm in the coming week as above normal temperatures move across from the west by the weekend.
• Domestic natural gas production is stable at around 103.3bcf/d this week after reaching a record 104.4bcf/d on 23 Oct but still well above output of around 100bcf/d this time last year.
• Natural gas delivery flows to US LNG export facilities are today estimated at 14.0bcf/d according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 13.6bcf/d in October.
• Ukraine does not plan to transit Russian natural gas to Europe beyond Dec 2024 according to ICIS citing Naftogaz Ukraine. Russia's five-year transit deal with Ukraine signed at the end of 2019 expires in December 2024
• Total European LNG sendout was at 341mcm/d on 29 Oct with an average for October of about 323mcm/d.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days rose by 19% last week to the highest since at least 2017, when Bloomberg started recording data.
• Global weekly LNG imports in the week of 23-29 October stood at 6.3mn tons, down 12% on the week, driven lower flows into JKCT and India, BNEF data showed.
• BNEF revised down its forecasts for LNG exports out of Egypt during this winter to 2.7mn tons, or around 41 cargoes, from 4.4mn tons forecasted earlier in October, after the Israel-Hamas conflict caused a halt to natural gas pipeline flows from Israel to Egypt.
• Mitsui is checking the impact of recent sanctions on the Arctic LNG 2 export project in Russia to assess whether the project will be able to start by year-end according to CFO Tetsuya Shigeta.
• QatarEnergy’s recently signed long-term contracts for European deliveries are likely to have included European natural gas hubs as part of the pricing index, according to Platts.