Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Weakens

Henry Hub plummeted once again near US close and is trading just above its intraday low of $2.683/MMBtu. It is set for its lowest closing level since late September. Record domestic production is adding to healthy storage and an expected drop in demand next week due to a warning weather forecast.

• US Natgas DEC 23 down -3.4% at 2.7$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAY 24 down -1.7% at 2.71$/mmbtu
• Current cold weather has driven domestic US natural gas demand further above normal for the time of year up to 98.9bcf/d according to Bloomberg. Demand is however expected to fall back as temperatures warm over the coming weekend and into next week.
• The NOAA forecast shows above normal temperatures across most of the US in the 6–14-day period.
• Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are today estimated down to 13.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg due to a drop of about 0.85bcf/d in supplies to Sabine Pass since the start of the week.
• US Henry Hub is forecast at 3.34$/mmbtu in 2024 with upside risk limited by an overhang of supply from 2023 according to JP Morgan. The forecast for 2025 is 4.75$/mmbtu amid a fall in global prices and tighter US balances.
• Global weekly LNG imports fell by 14% on the week to 7.6mn tons during 20-26 November, driven by a decline in shipments to North Asia and NW Europe according to BNEF.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 0.7% over the last week to 4.25mn tons as of 26 November, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The rising costs of Shale gas production in the coming years will have a knock-on effect in boosting global LNG prices, Gazprom said as reported by TASS.
• Gazprom has shipped around 1.4m mt of LNG since September 2022 from the Portovaya Plant in Leningrad in Russia’s Baltic region, according to TASS citing Gazprom.