NATURAL GAS END OF DAY SUMMARY: TTF Rallies on Lower Supplies

TTF is trading higher today supported by lower pipeline flows from Norway amid maintenance extensions at the large Troll gas field, and lower LNG flows to Europe, while the US Henry Hub also holds onto gains after a small EIA inventory build.

• TTF SEP 23 up 8% at 31.04€/MWh
• The price for LNG cargoes delivered in northwest Europe against the European TTF benchmark has switched from a small price premium to a discount according to Spark Commodities.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have fallen further today to 308.3mcm/d with additional maintenance at Troll extended throughout the first three weeks of August.
• LNG sendout to Europe has averaged just over 300mcm/d at the start of this week compared to an average of around 333mcm/d in July and 378mcm/d in June. Prices in Asia edge higher to continue to encourage spot LNG deliveries to Asia over Europe.
• Total European gas in store was up above the five-year range at 86.09% full on 31 July according to GIE data compared to the five-year average of 71.0%.
• Natural gas demand from European industries is forecast to rise this winter year on year but consumption is expected to remain below pre-crisis levels according to a Goldman Sachs note.
• LNG exports will resume from ADNOC DAS Island LNG Plant as maintenance has now been completed.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 down -0.5$/mmbtu at 1.05$/mmbtu
• Kansai Electric’s relaunch of the last idle reactor at its flagship nuclear plant will create the sharpest shift away from LNG imports since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, according to the Japan Times.
• Swiss hydropower reserves have risen by 2.4 percentage points last week to 72.1%, or 6,423GWh, as of 31 July but stocks turned into a deficit to the long-term average for the first time this year, BFE data show.
• US Henry Hub holds onto previous gains and is relatively unchanged after an initial spike higher following a below expected rise in US storage inventories.
• The latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 28 July showed a build of +14bcf, compared to expectation of a +18bcf build and the five-year average for this time of the year of +40bcf.
• US Natgas SEP 23 up 3.6% at 2.57$/mmbtu