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NATGAS: Natural Gas Prices Surge on Cooler Weather Outlooks

NATGAS
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U.S. gas prices surged on Monday supported by colder weather outlooks and LNG demand as further capacity ramps up but has retraced from earlier high’s.

  • US Natgas FEB 25 up 15.5% at 3.91$/mmbtu
  • The National Weather Service expects a higher chance of colder-than-normal weather across the US East and Midwest in its latest 8-14 day outlook compared to a prior expectation of a mild fall.
  • LSEG estimated 499 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 399 estimated on Friday.
  • It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping to 148.4 bcfd this week from 120.2 bcfd last week.
  • The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. Plaquemines LNG feedgas is today at 0.51bcf/d but reached a high of 0.63bcf/d on Dec. 25.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is near normal at 85.6bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated up at 106.5bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 105.2bcf/d so far in December.
  • LNG was produced for the first time from the first train of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefaction project. Substantial completion of Train 1 is expected to be achieved at the end of Q1 2025, more than six months ahead of the guaranteed completion date.
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U.S. gas prices surged on Monday supported by colder weather outlooks and LNG demand as further capacity ramps up but has retraced from earlier high’s.

  • US Natgas FEB 25 up 15.5% at 3.91$/mmbtu
  • The National Weather Service expects a higher chance of colder-than-normal weather across the US East and Midwest in its latest 8-14 day outlook compared to a prior expectation of a mild fall.
  • LSEG estimated 499 heating degree days over the next two weeks, compared with 399 estimated on Friday.
  • It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping to 148.4 bcfd this week from 120.2 bcfd last week.
  • The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. Plaquemines LNG feedgas is today at 0.51bcf/d but reached a high of 0.63bcf/d on Dec. 25.
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is near normal at 85.6bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • US domestic natural gas production is estimated up at 106.5bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 105.2bcf/d so far in December.
  • LNG was produced for the first time from the first train of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefaction project. Substantial completion of Train 1 is expected to be achieved at the end of Q1 2025, more than six months ahead of the guaranteed completion date.