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NatWest At Low End Of CPI Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • NatWest see core CPI inflation at 0.19% M/M (consensus 0.3% M/M), close to its November gain of 0.199%, with most of the moderation led by weakness in core goods prices and specifically vehicles.
  • Used cars prices are seen falling -3% after five consecutive monthly declines with new vehicles also dipping -0.1%.
  • OER and primary rents both seen rising 0.7%, whilst other travel-related services such as lodging away from home and airfares were likely little changed after steeper declines in Nov.
  • They do however see medical care services declining for a third monthly decline and to continue with -0.1% in Jan and -0.5% in Feb on account of the annual resetting of Medicare reimbursement rates.
  • Headline CPI seen inching up 0.1% M/M (6.3% Y/Y, -0.8pp) with energy -4.8% and food rising a consecutive +0.5%.
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