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NatWest: August Payrolls Prone To Disappointment

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

NatWest is looking for a weaker print in August vs expectations, with a +535k estimate, and 5.3% unemployment (vs +725k and 5.2%, respectively).

  • NWM points out that over the past 10 Augusts, 90% have seen downside surprises vs BBG estimates.
  • In addition to the possibility that Delta variant concerns could constrain hiring, they expect "exaggerated" seasonally-adjusted gains in state and local education jobs (+224k avg in June and July) to fail to show up in the August report, leaving gov't payrolls flat, vs +525k private payrolls.
  • They don't see the ADP payrolls miss this week as meaningful.

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