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NatWest: Below Consensus On Payrolls and Not Ruling Out Downward Revision

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • NatWest expect NFP growth of 175k. At least part of the strength in January payrolls looks like it was due to generous seasonal adjustment factors and they expect some payback in Feb - they also wouldn't rule out the possibility that some of seasonally adjusted gain for Jan is ultimately revised lower.
  • Meanwhile, the u/e rate is seen rounding up to 3.5% from last month’s 3.434%. However, the backdrop heading into the report is even more unclear than usual. The “jobs-plentiful” index in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report suggests that the underlying trend in the unemployment rate is still edging down, while seasonal adjustment dynamics in the household (and payroll) survey could reverse a bit in February and push up the unemployment rate (and weigh on payrolls).
  • Like the recent price data, they suspect AHE firmed in Feb, with overall earnings up by 0.4% M/M (after 0.3% in January) and the y/y pace picked back up to 4.8% from 4.4% y/y in January. The pre-COVID trend was around 3% y/y.
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