FREELAND: CANADA WON'T ESCALATE OR BACK DOWN ON US TRADE FIGHT

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 8/13/28/50-Week BTF Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.125% Jul-29 Gilt Due on Tuesday

MNI: CANADA OCT WHOLESALE SALES +3.3%; EX-AUTOS +0.5%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

NatWest Markets: 65% probability of a February hike

BOE
  • “A follow-up rate hike in February 2022 is by no means a done deal (we would pitch the probability of this at ~65%) and is clearly dependent on Omicron having a relatively benign economic impact. On balance, the BoE opting to raise rates in December when they could easily have waited until February is a clearer signal of intent to reduce the existing degree of policy accommodation. Still, early February may be the point of peak pressure for healthcare systems, with associated tighter economic restrictions, so there is a clear risk that the next hike is delayed until March or even May.”
  • “The NWM BoE Bank Rate forecast reverts to its ‘November 2021 vintage’: +25bp to 0.50% in February 2022 and +25bp to 0.75% in August 2022. In our view the risks remain skewed towards Bank Rate being raised during 2023 (to 1¼%-1½%) rather than a materially faster pace of tightening in 2022.”
  • “Tenreyro’s dissenting vote against December’s Bank Rate hike now positions her as the leading dove in our view… It is worth noting that Ms Tenreyro acknowledged that ‘were it not for the emergence of the Omicron variant, an increase in Bank Rate could have been appropriate at this meeting’, which tends to reinforce the ‘hawkish’ outcome in December.”
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.