MNI BRIEF: China Visitor Mobile Payments Surge in H1

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 26

MNI BRIEF: Foreign Firms Content In China

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Steady- TEBA

MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY299.05 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 589; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 101

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JUL INDEX 66.4

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Natwest Markets on NBH Minutes/Hungarian Forint

HUNGARY
  • HUF continued to sell-off Wednesday, reaching another all-time low against the EUR. The NBH minutes reflected some rueful wishful thinking on behalf of monetary authorities. Rationalising its decision to end its rate-hiking cycle, the NBH described conventional rate hikes and liquidity draining operations as almost interchangeable "pillars" of monetary policy.
  • Early results of the discount bill auction and long-term deposit have been mixed. The latest operation saw only HUF 2bn of bids out of HUF1tn on offer.
  • However, a failure to drain more significant amounts of liquidity is not the NBH's biggest problem. The problem is that it failed to convince currency markets which are now punishing HUF for the central bank's perceived premature exit from tightening. The more the currency depreciates, the more rates markets price in that the NBH will be forced back into interest rate hikes.
  • FRAs are now pricing in 131bps of NBH rate hikes and a terminal rate 145bps higher than what it expected prior to the NBH's decision to end its hiking cycle. Tomorrow's second discount bill auction will be a market focus. Limited uptake of the auction and continued currency depreciation could force the NBH back into tightening.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.