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Natwest: Sticking To 50bp Hike In Sept On Assumption CPI Moderates Slightly

FED
  • By itself, this payrolls report "would argue to stay aggressive (with another 75bp hike) in Sept".
  • To be clear though "we have not changed our expectation for a slightly more moderate 50bp hike for Sept, as we still think the [two] upcoming CPI reports should moderate slightly relative to the last few reports".
  • There's another jobs report before then as well and "we wouldn't expect that the reported strength today is repeated in the August data."
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  • By itself, this payrolls report "would argue to stay aggressive (with another 75bp hike) in Sept".
  • To be clear though "we have not changed our expectation for a slightly more moderate 50bp hike for Sept, as we still think the [two] upcoming CPI reports should moderate slightly relative to the last few reports".
  • There's another jobs report before then as well and "we wouldn't expect that the reported strength today is repeated in the August data."