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NatWest: Supply Limitations To Constrain NFPs

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

NatWest looks for a below-consensus +350k October nonfarm payroll reading, comprising flat gov't payrolls and +350k private.

  • That's mainly a supply-side rather than demand-side reflection: "In our opinion, continued fears of infections, supply-demand frictions, and over two million retirements since the onset of the virus could still be holding down the labor rebound relative to some of the more optimistic estimates in the consensus survey."
  • And "peripheral data" (incl ISM employment; ADP payrolls) "have not given us a strong reason to adjust our earlier payroll forecasts".
  • They're in line with the unemp rate consensus at 4.7%, but above-consensus on avg hourly earnings (0.5%).
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