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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNavalny & Inflation Force RUB Unwind; Sanctions Risks Abound This Week
- USD/RUB opens marginally lower, but continues to lag its EM high beta peers due to local political risks surrounding Navalny.
- The material rebuild in risk premia associated with EU & US sanctions and a spike in inflation eroding carry appeal has forced the recent unwind in RUB long positioning and should continue to keep RUB on the back foot - especially this week, as the EU awaits Navalny's verdict before applying sanctions.
- Focus will be firmly on tomorrow's trial where Navalny is expected to receive 3.5 years in jail as the base case.
- A harsher sentence will likely elicit a harsher response from the international community.
- However, one way Russia may look to temper international condemnation in the near-term is to provide a shorter initial sentence, before escalating it further down the track (6m to 1 yr) on new charges.
- Sell side still says RUB remains undervalued, and will be a solid play once risk premia and local volatility decline.
- Sup1: 75.0980, Sup2: 75.9224, Res1: 75.8442, Res2: 76.3870
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.