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NBG: 4Q23 Results Good, Upgraded Guidance, Credit Positive

FINANCIALS

National Bank of Greece (ETE GA) 4Q23 results look good with upgraded guidance for profit and capital generation. These should underpin the credit stack, in our view.


  • Key credit metrics: credit losses are 58bp (underlying), from 63bp in 3Q23 and better than expectations. Non-performers are flat at 3.7% (Sep-23: 3.7% est.) – consensus was looking for a drop to 3.3%. CET1 ratio is 17.8% (down 10bp in the quarter) and close to the 18.1% in consensus.
  • Revenues were 8% ahead of consensus (+7% y/y) driven by good fee income (+15% y/y), driving net income 18% ahead of consensus.
  • Outlook: FY24 and FY26 core profit after tax guidance is c.20% above current consensus with further improvements in asset quality seen and organic capital generation accelerating. Dividend policy is seen as moving towards “European levels” (i.e. higher) but, overall, these figures should be an upgrade to earnings and expectations.
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