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NBH Delivers A 'Super' 200Bps Hike, EURHUF Nearly Unchanged

HUNGARY
  • Following the sharp HUF depreciation this week, the NBH decided to raise its 1W depo rate by 200bps to 9.75% at today's meeting.
  • Interestingly, the forint has not responded much to the aggressive hike, with EURHUF down slightly and currently trading at around the 408 level.
  • CEE FX (particularly HUF) remain driven by external factors (geopolitical and market uncertainty), therefore hiking too aggressively may not support the forint in the short term if risk off sentiment remains elevated.
  • However, policymakers could be betting on the fact if the macro outlook improves in the medium term, HUF will experience a sharp rally as it is currently trading significantly below its 'fundamental' value, therefore pressuring inflation to the downside.
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