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NBH Leaves 1W Depo Rate Steady Despite Surging Inflation

HUNGARY
  • NBH decided to leave its 1W depo rate unchanged this morning despite the ‘positive’ surprise in inflation this week and HUF ‘weakness’.
  • As a reminder, inflation accelerated to 9.5% in April (vs. 8.9% exp.), up from 8.5% the previous month and would be 2 to 3ppt higher in the absence of price caps.
  • EURHUF continues to trade above the 380 level after finding support at its 50DMA last week (376.30); next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 384.70.
  • We have seen that the HUF has been very sensitive to the developments of the Russia/Ukraine; political divergence with the EU has been on the rise as Hungary has rejected on several occasions EU embargo on Russian oil imports.
    • This week, Hungary hardened its public stance against a European Union embargo on Russian oil imports, saying it would withdraw its veto threat only if its imports via pipelines are excluded (BBG).
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